(A similar version of this Health Alert appeared at Forbes.)
Can Obamacare still be repealed? Well, that depends. If the politicians will legislate according to the people’s preferences, Obamacare is a jump-ball.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s latest tracking poll, 43 percent have a generally favorable opinion of Obamacare, while 42 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion. Further, 22 percent claim Obamacare has hurt them or their family directly, while only 19 percent claim it has helped. That leaves more than half who do not think Obamacare has directly affected them.
Perhaps the 25 million who have become insured or dependent on Medicaid after Obamacare rolled out will confirm its success. Actually, there has been no improvement in access to care due to Obamacare. The Commonwealth Fund reports that 35 percent of adults delayed medical care because of cost last year – versus 37 percent in 2005. Further, the proportion of adults ages 19 through 64 who had a medical problem but did not visit a doctor or clinic was 22 percent in 2003 and 23 percent last year. Thirteen percent did not receive needed specialist care last year – the same percentage as in 2003.
Basically, when it comes to access to care, Obamacare has returned us to the status quo from before the Great Recession – at great cost to taxpayers. And that is only the picture in broad strokes. Very few people account for most medical spending, and those very sick people are doing poorly in Obamacare plans. A politician who offers a compelling plan to restore prosperity, as well as repealing and replacing Obamacare, should not face overwhelming odds convincing Obamacare beneficiaries.
The real obstacle to advancing an alternative to Obamacare will be interests in the health sector, which has mastered Obamacare remarkably. The latest evidence is the first quarter earnings reported by UnitedHealth Group and Hospital Corporation of America, both of which Forbes colleague Bruce Japsen describes as having had the “best Obamacare quarter yet.”