Category: Health Care Costs

Health Prices Outpace Other Consumer Prices

Today’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that prices of health services are outpacing other consumer goods and services by a multiple. From February to March, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased 0.2 percent. Medical care services overall increased at twice that rate, 0.4 percent, while physicians’ and hospital services both increased by 0.6 percent.

Year on year, the situation is even worse. The CPI showed slight deflation of minus 0.1 percent, while prices of medical care services have increased 1.9 percent, physicians’ services 1.7 percent and hospital services a startling 3.4 percent.

With respect to health goods, price increases might be tapering. Although prices of medical care commodities increased 4.2 percent, year on year, they only increased 0.1 percent last month. Nonprescription drugs, medical equipment, and medical supplies actually had small decreases in prices last month.

28 Percent of Federal Taxes Go To Health Care

27.49 percent, actually. Weekly Standard’s Jeryl Bier used the White House’s own calculator to figure this out. The trend is not our friend:

In 2010, the year Obamacare passed and was signed into law, the healthcare percentage was 24.10. The following year, 2011, it dropped to 23.7 percent, and in 2012 dropped still further to 22.45 percent. After this, however, the trend sharply reversed. In 2013 the healthcare share jumped to 25.19 percent, and the latest numbers posted this week for 2014 show the highest proportion yet at 27.49 percent, a full 22 percent increase over 2012.

400 Percent Cost Difference to Treat Prostate Disease

UCLA researchers have for the first time described cost across an entire care process for a common condition called benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) using time-driven activity-based costing. They found a 400 percent discrepancy between the least and most expensive ways to treat the condition.

The finding takes on even further importance as there isn’t any proven difference in outcomes between the lower and higher cost treatments, said study first author Dr. Alan Kaplan, a resident physician in the UCLA Department of Urology.

“The rising cost of health care is unsustainable, and a big part of the problem is that health systems, health care providers and policy makers have a poor understanding of how much health care really costs,” Kaplan said. “Until this is well understood, taxpayers, insurers and patients alike will continue to bear the burden of soaring health care costs.”(UCLA Health)

From the study itself: “Although listed as ‘optional’ in practice guidelines, invasive diagnostic testing can increase costs by 150% compared with the standalone urology clinic visit. Of five different surgical options, a 400% cost discrepancy exists between the most and least expensive treatments.

We know why this happens: Patients are not involved in forming prices in U.S. health care. One solution is reference pricing. Why that has not yet taken of like wildfire is a question that we will be addressing in future entries.

Health Goods Prices Rise; Other Prices Fall

Last Friday’s release of the Producer Price Index  for February confirms that prices for health goods and services are rising at a much higher rate than other producer prices, most of which are declining significantly.

As shown in Table 1, prices of goods for final demand actually dropped 4.2 percent over the last twelve months. However, prices of pharmaceutical preparations increased by 7.1 percent; and prices of medical, surgical, and personal-aid devices also crept up.

20150313 PPI

Prices for intermediate goods tell a similar story, with prices for medicinal, botanical, and biological chemicals experiencing higher price growth than other processed chemicals.

Prices for services sends a much less clear signal, being distributed around an increase of 1.2 percent for all demand services. (Health insurance is categorized as both a final and intermediate services, as it is sold both retail and wholesale.)

Prices of services are more important than prices of goods in determining overall health price inflation. Nevertheless, there is no evidence that Obamacare is holding down prices of health services.

(The Altarum Institute has also released its updates of health spending and prices, which show strong growth in health spending of 5 percent in 2014 and high relative price inflation.)

To Reduce Drug Prices, Solve R&D Crisis

A new NCPA study concludes that Congress must act to reduce the regulatory burden on pharmaceutical research and development.

Reducing the prices of specialty drugs requires improving the productivity of research and development (R&D). On that front, the news is sobering. Last December, Deloitte and Thomson Reuters examined newly introduced drugs from the 12 pharmaceutical companies with the largest R&D budgets.5 They found it cost $1.3 billion to bring one of these new compounds to market. However, the peak sales forecast for each of these drugs declined by 43 percent, dropping from an average of $816 million in 2010 to $466 million in 2013.

The high nominal prices of new drugs do not compensate for the smaller patient populations they target. Deloitte and Thompson Reuters estimate the internal rate of return (IRR) of R&D spending has dropped in half since 2010, from 10.5 percent to 4.8 percent. Sales of new drugs are not overcoming the loss of patents, weak pricing power for older drugs, or the reduced productivity of R&D.

The Fall of Government Unions And Slowing Health Costs

An op-ed in the Wall Street Journal (available by subscription) about a recent legal decision on retiree health benefits shines the light on is a reason for optimism about the slow growth in health spending.

As readers know, I look pretty closely at the economic data from various government agencies, and they are starting to show an uptick in health spending and prices. However, a recent Supreme Court decision weakens the power of government unions to demand exorbitant retiree health benefits, according to Robert C. Pozen and Ronald J. Gilson.

Health Spending Chews Through A Weak Economy

Today’s second estimate of fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed what we pointed out from the initial estimate released on January 30: Health spending is chewing up more and more of the weakening economic recovery.

GDP growth was actually revised down from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent to a second estimate of just 2.2 percent. In dollar terms, it was a drop from $106 billion to just $88.1 billion.

Health spending, initially estimated at $20.4 billion was tweaked up a little to $21.4 billion. In other words, health spending devoured one quarter of GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

These are the wages of Obamacare: An increasing share of our prosperity diverted to a health sector that is increasingly frustrating to patients and physicians alike.

Prices for Health Goods Rallying

As the economy slowly crawls its way back towards growth, inflation is well under control. However, healthcare inflation is rearing its head. Table 1 presents data from the February release of the Producer Price Index.

Over the last twelve months through January, producer prices increased by zilch, and actually decreased since last December. Prices of goods for final demand actually dropped 3.7 percent over the year. Pharmaceutical preparations, however, increased by 7.3 percent, and other healthcare goods also had higher inflation than other goods for final demand (which, I hate to state, also weakens the argument that the medical-device excise tax is having as negative an effect as the industry claims).20150219 PPI

 

Consumer-Driven Childbirth in the New Bronze Age

Birth rates fall during economic downturns — especially among lower-income women. A 2012 study found that birth rates declined 8% during the recession from 2007 to 2010. Presumably this was due to economic uncertainly, but could also be attributed to cost-sharing for a major medical event.

The out-of-pocket cost of having a baby is going up. High-deductible health plans (HDHPs) and their “Bronze” counterparts in Obamacare exchanges are expected to be the most common insurance arrangements for expectant mothers in the near future. A recent JAMA article  discusses the implications of high-deductible health plans and rising out-of-pocket costs on expectant mothers.

Childbirth is the most frequent reason for hospitalization in the United States. Although Obamacare mandates that insurers cover birth hospitalizations, its only limit on cost-sharing is through relatively high annual out-of-pocket maximums. According to the article:

Health Care Spending is Up, Way Up

The economic data on health spending has been bouncing around like crazy in the age of Obamacare, so we must not read too much into one report. Nevertheless, the January 30 report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that health spending has begun to race up again, despite moderate economic growth.

Last week’s report contains the final estimate of 3rd quarter GDP and the advance estimate of 4th quarter GDP for 2014. As noted in my comment on the December release, real GDP growth in the 3rd quarter was strong: 5 percent annualized, and this was confirmed in the January report. However, growth for the 4th quarter was significantly slower, just 2.6 percent annualized.