Allison Percy of the Congressional Budget Office has published estimates of what would happen if employer-based health insurance was taxable to employees. Currently, employer-based health insurance is excluded from both income tax and payroll taxes for Medicare and Social Security. According to Percy, 73 million would lose employer-based benefits by 2017, of which 54 million would get their coverage from Obamacare exchanges. The number of uninsured would increase by 12 million. Percy also shows the distribution of this effect by household income. This is an important estimate for post-Obamacare reform, because Percy’s model simply taxes the value of employer-based insurance without returning any of those tax dollars to the people as a tax credit for the purchase of individual health insurance. (Of course, some of those 54 million getting health insurance from Obamacare exchanges will have lower premiums because their health insurers receive subsidies in their names.) Those of us who advocate reforming the tax code to give individuals tax credits for health insurance have always been beaten back by anxiety over losing employer-based benefits. Percy’s conclusions help us understand how much money we would have to allocate to tax credits to overcome the loss of employer-based benefits after including them as taxable income.