A few days ago, I wrote an article suggesting that an effective post-Obamacare reform would be difficult to bring about as long as anti-Obamacare reformers (especially yours truly) stuck to the simple argument that being on Medicaid is as bad (or even worse) than being uninsured. The reason is that the Medicaid beneficiary does not sign up for a national health plan called Medicaid. Instead, he is increasingly likely to sign up for a managed-care plan that contracts with the state to provide Medicaid benefits.
Readers retorted that the nail in Medicaid’s coffin was driven by the Oregon Medicaid experiment, a randomized, controlled trial (sometimes described as “gold standard” which it could not have been, because it was not double blinded). This blog has agreed that the Oregon Medicaid experiment demonstrated the ineffectiveness of Oregon’s Medicaid expansion. However, I am not sure that leads to a general theory of Medicaid’s overall ineffectiveness.