Health spending has been slow in the U.S. for a number of years. It’s clearly not due to Obamacare. New research by Professor David Dranove and colleagues corroborates that the recession, which started in 2007, is mostly responsible for the reduced rate of growth of health spending:
The source of the recent slowdown in health spending growth remains unclear. We used new and unique data on privately insured people to estimate the effect of the economic slowdown that began in December 2007 on the rate of growth in health spending. By exploiting regional variations in the severity of the slowdown, we determined that the economic slowdown explained approximately 70 percent of the slowdown in health spending growth for the people in our sample. This suggests that the recent decline is not primarily the result of structural changes in the health sector or of components of the Affordable Care Act, and that — absent other changes in the health care system — an economic recovery will result in increased health spending.
Whether there will be significant economic recovery as long as Obamacare reduces incentives for businesses to grow and hire is not discussed in the article.