Calculations by the Heritage Foundation via the Urban Institute:
- 40 of 50 states are projected to see increases in costs due to the Medicaid expansion.
- The majority of states see costs exceed savings when the federal match rate is lowered after the first three years. From there, state costs continue to climb, dwarfing any projected savings.
- State savings are concentrated in large states. New York is estimated to see $33 billion in savings, while Massachusetts is estimated to save $6 billion over 10 years.