ObamaCare by the Numbers

There have been 8 versions of ObamaCare. The numbers below are estimates made for one or more of them. We believe they are still in the ballpark, and we will update as more information becomes available.
“If you like the plan you are in you can keep it.”

19 million Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan
8 to 9 million Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (CBO)
$11,543 Employer incentive to drop coverage for a $30,000 a year worker with family [Tax subsidy in the exchange minus tax subsidy at work minus $2,000 fine] (IRET)
8.5 million Number of seniors and disabled people at risk of losing their Medicare Advantage plan (Medicare Chief Actuary)
3 million Additional people who will likely lose Medicare Advantage plan benefits (Medicare Chief Actuary)
$816 Average annual benefit loss for 11 million seniors and disabled in Medicare Advantage plans (CBO)
33 million Number of people in traditional Medicare at risk of losing access to care because of $523 billion in cuts in Medicare spending (Medicare Chief Actuary)
20% Fraction of hospitals that would become unprofitable after Medicare spending cuts (Medicare Chief Actuary)

ObamaCare is Stayin’ Alive

“There will be no tax increases for anyone who earns less than $200,000.”

73 million Number of people who earn less than $200,000 who will see their tax bill rise (Joint Committee on Taxation)
40% Tax rate on “Cadillac” plans (Reconciliation Summary)
2.3% Hidden tax on wheelchairs and other medical supplies (CBO update)
$27 billion Hidden “medicine cabinet” tax on drugs (Reconciliation Summary)
10% Tax on tanning salons (Reconciliation Summary)
$60 billion Hidden health insurance tax (Reconciliation Summary)

 

“Health insurance reform is…about creating a climate where our entrepreneurs and small businesses can succeed [and] about giving you the chance to prosper and grow.”

$100 million Cost of ObamaCare mandates for Caterpillar, Inc. in the first year alone (Caterpillar, Inc.)
60% Implicit marginal tax rate for workers earning as little as $25,000 (IRET)
65% Implicit marginal tax rate for families earning as little as $50,000 (IRET)
0.9% New payroll tax on the wages of entrepreneurs and small business owners (Reconciliation Summary)
3.8% New tax on the capital income of entrepreneurs and small business owners (Reconciliation Summary)

“The average family will save $2,500 in health care costs by the time I complete my first term as President of the United States.”

111% Premium increase for individual insurance (AHIP)
54% Premium increase for individual insurance (BlueCross BlueShield)
106% Premium increase for individual insurance (Wellpoint)
$2,100 Premium increase for the average family (CBO)

 

“Over the past year the House and the Senate have been working on an effort to provide health insurance reform that lowers costs …

$220 billion Rise in national health care spending over the next 10 years (Medicare Chief Actuary)

“… that guarantees access to care …”

16 million Number of new people added to Medicaid and SCHIP, where care is increasingly rationed and where provider choice is increasingly restricted. (CBO)
0 Number of new doctors and nurses trained and number of new hospitals built to meet the needs of 32 million newly-insured (CBO)

” … and enhances the quality of health care for all Americans.”

29 million Number of people who will enter a health insurance exchange where health plans will have an incentive to underprovide to the sick. (CBO/NCPA)

 

“This is not about big government …”

16,500 Additional IRS auditors needed to enforce the legislation (Ways and Means Minority Report)

“This legislation will protect families …”

$6,000 to $10,000 Marriage penalty if two $32,000-a-year workers say “I do.” (Ways and Means Minority Report)

“We are going to get rid of the special deals …”

$7,300 Extra exemption from the Cadillac premium tax for members of labor unions. (Ways and Means Minority Report)

“This bill will reduce the federal deficit …”

$562 billion Increase in the deficit after removing budget gimmicks and unrealistic tax increases and budget cuts relegated to future Congresses (CBO former director)

Comments (35)

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  1. Devon Herrick says:

    Another statistic or factoid that needs to be added to this list.

    “The number of trees felled to make the paper used in printing all the various versions of ObamaCare for the past year.”

    Unfortunately, I don’t have the answer.

    The original House bill was something like 1,100 pages. The Initial Senate Bill was something like 2,000 pages. The final Senate Bill was 2,700 pages. Now Congress is working on all the “fixes” to the Senate Bill. Each of these had to be scored by the CBO, which then produced a report.

    The wood used to merely print all the reiterations of various bills — viewed by all manner of analysts — added to the CBO scores for all the various bills could have kept Habitat for Humanity in lumber for a generation to come.

  2. Virginia says:

    Excellent report. I’m still amazed the darn thing passed.

  3. William Dunkelberg says:

    The larger the share of GDP controlled by government, the worse off the electorate (an historically observable fact). “Change” is not good unless it is constructive. This was not, it will be ruinous, we will regret this very soon. Except trial lawyers and union members who the president will protect. For the rest of us, our quality of life will be degraded.

  4. Jack Alspaugh says:

    This is the Mother of all Obamanations

  5. Ken says:

    It was a sad day for liberty yesterday. But this fight is not over by a long shot. We will have an opportunity to fire these people in November.

  6. Larry says:

    Perhaps a statistic on the number of agencies, jobs and estimated pages of regulations required by the law would be an appropriate add to your list. http://www.ilovebenefits.hcbn1.com

  7. grover bailey says:

    All this tyalk about the republicans taking congress back in november is wrong.Acorn will pull enough dead voters out of the ground to keep the communits in office forever.They probably have millions of dead voters to use.

  8. grover bailey says:

    this is correct.acorn will win the election for our muslim president.then he will kick pelosie,reid,shumer and the rest of his idiots out and replace them with his fellow muslims.

  9. Moey says:

    I don’t have a clue as to how they are going to pay for this abomination. I am a senior citizen who works full time in order to have health care in addition to Medicare (which does not pay much) and I am now concerned that my employer may drop providing such coverage or at the least raise the cost so high that it become unaffordable.

    Where are all the doctors/hospitals going to come from to take care of the multi millions of people added to the rules without regard to any sort of pre-existing conditions. I just scratch my head!

  10. R Allan Jensen says:

    Andrew Biggs at American Enterprise Institute has a new report that concludes an average increase in Federal taxes will be needed over the next 20 or so years to remove this horrendous budget deficit. And then we can imagine the mess at the state level.

    This bill will mean higher costs of capital to fund the Federal budget, which was NOT included in the CBO analysis. This will be the largest single factor increasing the Federal budget deficit.

    For those of you familiar with Chicago politics, which now fully inhabits DC, the next step in the process should be massive corruption. Enjoy!

  11. R Allan Jensen says:

    Sorry for the typo — the average increase Biggs caluclates in Federal taxes needed to deal with the deficit is 30%.

  12. Chucky says:

    You neocons crack me up talking about all of the tax increases needed to deal with the deficit. Why not talk about eliminating un-needed federal departments like the Department of Commerce & Transportation and a million other things that could be eliminated from the federal government to pay for this. Not to mention something that could get all of our taxes down even more quickly, a Fair Tax.

  13. JC says:

    I agree with most of the comments that have been made; after paying in for over 40 years to social security at fairly high rates, I am getting the perverbial shaft from Obama. What we need to understand is that this is about votes; “if you rob peter to pay paul, you will always get paul’s vote”. Next up; legallization of millions of illegal aliens…that’s another 12 million votes on top of the legal aliens that already vote for a handout!

    Soon, if we don’t wake up, we will easily be out voted by the masses that do not pay taxes.

    Thanks for nothing Obama!

  14. Nancy Mehegan says:

    Another Sell-Out to corporate interests. The Congress is a sad joke. Read more here: http://tinyurl.com/celebrate-or-cry

  15. Rob says:

    Go read Thomas Pain’s Rights of Man or John Locke’s Second Treatease of Government or the Declaration of Independance and see if they list healthcare as a natural right. I thought our natural rights were life, liberty, and property. This bill (soon to be law) only infringes upon these rights through higher taxes and unconstitutional mandates.

  16. Ken says:

    I agree with Rob.

  17. Ron Bachman says:

    We can’t get discouraged and assume that socialist is a creeping ratched approach that cannot be reversed. We need to develop conservative strategies to rebuild the limited constitutional government that our founding fathers created. The better understand the mind of what we are fighting the more successful we can be in getting back to the America we want. I highly recommend Thomas Sowell’s book “Conflict of Visions” (a 1980s publication). It is very relevant to today’s world and the thinking of liberals.

  18. RM Miles says:

    Thought your readers might enjoy our latest post:
    Since the Congressional Democrats worked so hard twisting arms, threatening, and horse trading to get ObamaCare passed into law, we thought it only proper that their 14 months of work be properly recognized. Therefore, we created the… Benedict Arnold Award. The award is available at: http://sirenspromise.com/

  19. Chris Ewin, MD says:

    Don’t forget what is happening to the providers of care who will be leaving medicine…It’s getting scary…

    “About 25 percent of respondents were primary care physicians (defined as internal medicine and family medicine in this case), and of those, 46 percent indicated that they would leave medicine — or try to leave medicine — as a result of health reform.”

  20. Kenneth A. Fisher, M.D. says:

    To effectively control health care costs many issues need to be addressed.

    Over-consumption in the United States is ubiquitous. Many of us buy houses we cannot afford, cars that are too big, vacations that are too expensive, take in too many calories and over utilize health care resources. Our televisions bombard us with drug and device advertising along with a multitude of things we do not need. Presently the health of our economy is based on an obsession with consumption. There is no doubt that we have an excess demand for health resources that generates income for many but is bankrupting our nation. It would not be rationing to deliver only care that has proven to be beneficial.

    The only way at this time to adequately meet the crushing need for primary care is to have medicine and pediatric sub-specialists practice primary care for many of their patients.

    The Medicare payment schedule is perverse; it over-rewards technology and under pays evaluation and management. As the nation’s largest insurer Medicare does drive the industry. Medicare is controlled by Congress which is susceptible to lobbying efforts by special interests and large commercial groups thus explaining our technology obsessed style of medicine. We therefore need to create a Federal Reserve Bank for health care to remove Congress from day-to-day control of our health care industry.

    To effectively control medical costs, provide care to all Americans these factors and others must be addressed. The solutions are on my blog, http://drkennethfisher.blogspot.com , Thank you, Kenneth A. Fisher, M.D.

  21. DAve says:

    For every argument I can come up with two that disprove it. Republicans only care about money, and not about people. You’re all suspect, and just trying to keep us lower class down.

  22. Jeff says:

    In response to DAve
    “Republicans only care about money, and not about people. You’re all suspect, and just trying to keep us lower class down.”

    It is not that Republican’s don’t care about people, we just believe:

    1) That the larger the government gets the more waste fraud and abuse will occur.
    2) Government does a poor job at managing recourses because it doesn’t have the incentives that the private sector does of turning a profit. The government and literally print more money and or increase taxes.
    3) The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples money and bankrupt the country (no good for anyone).

    If they really wanted to cut cost they would:
    1) Increase competition
    2) Enact Tort reform to reduce medical malpractice insurance and unnecessary tests that are the product of defensive medicine.
    3) Give tax incentives to business that provide insurance

    FYI – Tort reform was never really considered because most Democrat (reps) are lawyers, just as most Republican (reps) are former business men. That is why Democrats believes in taking money from those that produce s goods or service and Republicans believe in providing a goods or service (people want) and making a profit on it.

  23. tom lammers says:

    Grover Bailey (above) is partially right when he speaks of dead voters, he just has the inflection wrong.

  24. Uwe Reinhardt says:

    These comments will become a collector’s item. I will save them in my prmanent file.

    I find it refreshing, though, to see so many conservatives worry again about budget deficits. Did not know they cared about fiscal probity.

    Eight trees came down on our property in last week’s near hurricane here. I don’t know whether this will make Devon Herrick’s heart bleed or whether it makes him think that there is a just God.

  25. ScottV says:

    Just proves you can take anything out of context and make it fit your argument. Better Luck next time, I’d recommend that if you want things to change in your direction start working with the other side, they are the majority party after. What are Republicans going to run on “we said no, but lost anyway” not a good strategy. I would recommend getting something positive done for this country be fore you get slaughtered in November.

  26. JeffB says:

    There’s just too darn many people on the planet, all with a different opinion. All I know is the next step after Apathy is Slavery. Hell, we’re already slaves to the tax man and the parasites attached to him.

  27. Nanoo Visotor says:

    How about a more drastic reform than tort, call it lawyer reform? The following has been suggested by someone who will be running against a 12-term incumbent, in the next election.

    Lawyers are “Officers of the Court”, and therefore attached to the Judicial system. It is a clear conflict of interest for them to serve in either the Legislative or Executive branches.

  28. Concerned Citizen says:

    I think the conversation on this page says it all. Your hatred is palpable through the internet. I used to support you but your blatant lies and racist comments from your “constituents” have reversed my vote and my support. I would watch what people write on your official page if I were you.

  29. Dave Cunningham says:

    Unleash the consumers who will spend their own money wisely: HOW? allow across state lines insurance competition, HSA’s , medical practices needs to show statistics on how they handle patient’s issues because we ask for it; Stop the legal assault on our health care causing MDs to run tests for CYA, rather than for medical reasons – tort reform, ask any doctor you know personally; medicine is not part of our commercial system.. who prices a heart surgery, how is that done? We do price pills and that’s a start. Ever try to get a quote prior to a procedure from a medical practice? All the normal bargaining tools of a wary consumer have been slipped and stolen from the tool bag. Put ‘em back. All legislatures must have the same options the public has and no special plans for them. My monthly (in April 2010) premium with a high deductible in central Virginia with BC/BS shield went up from 623 to 843 per month. I have pre existing conditions but didn’t have the insurer pay my bills because of the high deductible and HSA but where can I go to give the providers competition for my business? I’ve been pre-empted before I buy! Hey who took my tools!

    As a nation we pay “X amount” for our health care but if it is disorganized and ineffective we pay “X plus $ more” . Does really matter if we pay it as private citizens through private premiums or as a tax we all pay ? If the underlying system is wasteful all payments -whether as private premiums or as a tax-thereafter will reflect that. Thinking about core and simple problems is mandatory to start to discuss in our national discourse what are the real problems. A scientist who asks the wrong question will arrive at a wrong experiment and a dead end. Our national conversations needs to focus at several levels but must include fixing the present lack of competition, medical overuse due to fear of legal retribution athe level of the provider, then we can go to the level of who and how we pay, whether via taxes or private premiums. A smart buyer should enjoy paying for quality because by definition “quality” is a fair exchange of my dollar for your service. We have equal standards ( one dollar buys one unit of medical service) and are both volunteers for the exchange. We are not volunteers now we are captive, tied and bound. Captive to the system, tied by historical inefficiencies and bound by grossly limited competitive restraints.

  30. RM Miles says:

    Not only do 15 state attorneys general, so far, plan to challenge the constitutionality of Obamacare, but a former New Jersey Superior Court Judge and law professor says it is illegal because the Obama healthcare legislation, now law, is “commandeering” authority retained by and for the states and not delegated to the federal government. More on the story at SirensPromise,com, http://sirenspromise.com/?p=867

  31. [...] many as 8.5 million of the 11 million seniors in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans may lose their coverage, according to Medicare’s Chief [...]

  32. mark kennedy says:

    There is an excellent documentary program about Obamacare. FRONTLINE produced a show called “Obama’s Deal”. It exposes all of the back-room deals that went into making the health care bill. You can view the entire episode online here:

    http://www.pbs.me/

    Click on the FRONTLINE Icon.

  33. [...] day, even if you are in a grandfathered plan, your employer could drop your coverage anyway. As we previously reported here, the number of workers who will lose their employer-provided insurance is estimated at 9 million to [...]

  34. ED FOUTS says:

    keep it up their gonna be a war on obama and aarp
    keep pushing and its going to get dirty you scum bags