Embarrassing ones, that is. And the thanks goes to Matt Yglesias:
One of the most infamous documents of the Obama era is a January 2009 projection attributed to Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer making the case for the president’s stimulus plan. They forecast that with the president’s plan in place, unemployment would peak in the third quarter of 2009 at 8 percent and then fall to about 5 percent by the second quarter of 2013.
The really striking thing about the paper isn’t what they say about the stimulus. It’s what they say about a world of no stimulus. In this world unemployment peaks at 9 percent in the middle of 2010. After that it falls quite rapidly to about 5.5 percent in early 2013 and then precisely matches the no-stimulus scenario by the end of this year. Which is to say they believed then what policymakers at all levels believed — that there was simply no way to have a grinding years-long period of seemingly endless slow growth and mass unemployment. A harder recessionary fall would mean a sharper snapback. Cushioning the blow was sensible and humane, but the actual difference would be short-lived.