What’s The Worst Case Scenario?

Suppose that only two million people enroll through the exchanges, instead of the projected seven million. Seth Chandler dissects the results:

Insurance sold through Exchanges without medical underwriting — a central promise of the Affordable Care Act — is likely to implode in a significant number of states by 2015 while limping along in several others but providing little net desired decrease in the number of people without quality health insurance.

Comments (13)

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  1. Billy says:

    So the worst case scenario is the near total collapse of the American health system?

  2. Brett says:

    Not the most optimistic outlook. Then again, the healthcare scene is a grim scene.

  3. Jackson says:

    Get ready to treat your healthcare like thunderdome.

  4. Wiliam says:

    “…limping along in several others…”

    The lucky ones get to limp, the rest just die.

    • Martha says:

      I can’t imagine how any state hopes to succeed. The smaller states are being crushed because of a lack of interest from providers and big states simply don’t have the capacity to organize such an undertaking.

    • Adam says:

      At least it’s philosophically sound in recognizing death as the worst outcome.

  5. Martha says:

    You can be sure that the 2 million are the sickliest 2 million though. Not many healthy folks willing to subsidize an overpriced tier of insurance.

  6. Yancey Ward says:

    I still think 2 million is too low- I have long thought 4 million was the number that would be hit, but I have recently thought maybe it was more likely to be under 4 million just based on the states whose exchanges are actually working. If I turn out about right, I don’t think you will see any reduction in subsidies in the long run- ACA will end up insuring about half the number predicted (ignoring Medicaid expansion) at what I think will ultimately be twice the cost. However, if the total of all the exchanges is still under 500,000 by the end of this month, 2 million is looking more and more likely, but I still don’t think the subsidies will 2/7 of that predicted- I just about guarantee the subsidy rate will be quite a bit higher than expected.